With this never ending election finally ending a week from now, I figured this would be a good time to give my predictions about the outcome. Parts of this I have mentioned before online, but here are my thoughts. Hopefully coherent.
A Liberal Trudeau majority will happen.
Harper has known for a good long time that many people were sick of him and his policies and scandals. That plus the constant juvenile attack ads on Trudeau made several view him as a childish bully.
These desperate attempts to reframe Justin as an incompetent pretty boy simply backfired as Trudeau showed he could form intelligent opinions and run the party fairly well. The vast so called mushy middle seem to view this tactic as needless bad politicking and very American style.
Harper had two strategies in mind here. Enough people would buy these commercials and he would coast to a majority. Or a minimum would swallow it and a minority would result. The second outcome would not be to Harper’s liking one hundred percent, but at least it would be a victory. And Harper would then soldier on just like before.
But that outcome seem to become less and less likely as Harper realized the attack ads were not working as he had hoped. The opposite was happening.
Harper’s Conservatives constantly reiterated that instead of doing media interviews or take part in debates, that their candidates would connect to Canadians at the door, directly. But I have a massively strong feeling that the door to door campaigning had the candidates getting earfuls about the economy and the scandals and even about the silly ads, and very few of it was on their side.
Now one thing even the most hardened critic of Harper can give him is that he runs a very tight, very controlled, and very well oiled machine, especially at election time. And that means the constant feedback at the door moves up the food chain to the head office election war room. This info is charted and diagrammed and algorithmed to an inch of Pi, in ways even Google and Netflix have not thought of yet.
And the output was not promising.
So Harper went to the “In case of emergency, break glass” plan and hired on that Australian negative campaigner and suddenly it was decided Muslims was the real issue this time around.
The new script was Old Stock Canadians (of which I am one, according to Harper’s coded phrase words, and how statisticians scientifically view it), barbaric cultural practices, worries about citizen oaths, and repeating terrorist over and over again.
This new gameplan had really nothing to do with winning a majority. If they were very very lucky, a minority at best. What Harper is aiming for is Official Opposition. He wants to avoid a Mulroney/Campbell complete destruction. Harper has a tremendous ego, so losing will be bad enough, especially to Trudeau, but to Mulcair and the NDP? That would be simply unacceptable and must not be allowed.
So he appeals to Grumpy Old Men Canadians, raises the boogeymen of anything different, and hopes the algorithms change to the new desired result. Who cares what this hate does to Canada, because Harper wants what Harper wants.
Now I could be wrong, that has happened before. And I would like to see what Nate Silver, who predicted Obama’s twin victories, would think of my logic. But unless something else comes up, a Canadian October Surprise as it were, I am very comfortable with my prediction.
Justin Trudeau will be Prime Minister.
…is currently reading Watership Down by Richard Adams. And clutching my copy of Go Set A Watchman by Harper Lee very very close.
P.S. This originally appeared on my Facebook on Monday. At the behest of Googliebear I am also posting it here.
UPDATE 2: Actual results: Liberal Majority. Got that right. Seats: Liberal 189, Conservatives 103, NDP 35, Other 11. My idea of a Conservative collapse did not come to pass.